The midterm elections: GOP’s target is Obama

President Barack Obama

One year after the 2008 elections forced them out of power and into a period of self-reflection and doubt, Republicans today face a new, more promising political landscape. But halfway between their biggest rebuke in decades and a midterm election they hope will launch their rebirth, GOP prospects hinge on the fate of a man they’ve underestimated before: President Barack Obama.

Hot races are already gearing up for 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats and 38 governorships, including those in the country’s four most populous states. To make big gains, however, Republicans will need more than top-tier candidates, strong fundraising, and good luck. They’ll need a weakened president, a demoralized Democratic base and an issues landscape that will be shaped almost entirely by the party in power.

“Every midterm election is, to a great degree, a referendum on the incumbent president, and Obama will be no different in 2010,” said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia. “This is true even when a president is relatively popular.”

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