Staying afloat in the March Madness pool

By Sam Adams

March Madness tips off Thursday, and for some of you, filling out the NCAA Tournament pool bracket is more important than balancing your checkbook. That might be a sad commentary on life, but it’s not going to prevent me from offering some pointers on how to win your office pool.

First tip? Don’t listen to anyone with a given title of ”bracketologist.”

These “bracketologists” — a so-called in-the-know-it-all — don’t know. And really, how hard is it to come to a conclusion that the higher seed will win?

In other words, a “bracketologist” is no different than you or I — picking the higher seeds and holding high hopes of being correct. “Hopeologist” might be a better title.

When you’re picking Virginia Commonwealth to beat UCLA, you’re hoping for an upset. You pick Michigan to beat Clemson, you’re hoping for an upset.

If you pick North Dakota State to beat Kansas, then you’re like me — not hoping for an upset, but still upset that you didn’t pick the Jayhawks to win it all last year because they were so adept at blowing up your bracket in years past.

Second tip? Trust your eyes.

If you’ve watched enough college basketball, you can separate the stronger teams from the teams that are most susceptible to pulling an upset — or being upset — in the tournament. Pittsburgh and Connecticut — a pair of No. 1 seeds from the Big East — ought to scare you. They never could handle the prosperity of being ranked No. 1 during the season.

For that matter, no team in college basketball seemed to do well when handed the No. 1 ranking. Maybe that’s a sign of things to come in the tournament.

What’s that? You didn’t watch much college basketball and you’re picking a bracket? No problem. Choose the higher seeds.

Third tip? Don’t fall in love with the coaches.

You’re hearing plenty about the great coaches who have been to and won at the Final Four. Yes, Rick Pitino has done it. So have Tom Izzo and Bill Self. Only one of the three will emerge from the Midwest bracket. It helps greatly when the coach has Final Four experience, but he’s not going to have the ball in hands when the game’s on the line in the final seconds.

Here’s a tidbit for you bracket-heads: Izzo (2000) and Self (2008) are two of the eight head coaches in this year’s tournament who have won tournament championships dating to 1998. The others are Roy Williams (2005), Jim Calhoun (1999 and 2004), Jim Boeheim (2003), Gary Williams (2002), Mike Krzyzewski (2001) and Tubby Smith (1998).

Billy Donovan coached Florida to consecutive titles (2006-07), but the Gators failed to make this year’s field.

Just to put a different spin on the coaching tidbit — nine coaches are responsible for leading teams to wins in the past 11 NCAA championships games. Eight of them still are with the school they helped win titles, with Smith (Kentucky to Minnesota) making the lone change of scenery. Six of the past 11 Super Bowl winning coaches no longer are in the NFL — including former Broncos coach Mike Shanahan.

Fourth tip? Pay attention to the travel schedule.

It doesn’t matter what anyone else says, travel makes a big difference. Mississippi State has a solid basketball team, but I can’t help but wonder how well it will play when removed from its southern comforts and placed into Portland, Ore., against Washington.

Or how about Marquette, which has an outstanding team, playing Stew Morrill’s bunch from Utah State. Utah State might find a real friendly crowd playing in Boise, Idaho.

And North Dakota State has no business being on the same court as the defending champion Jayhawks. That’s correct, except the court is in Minneapolis — 475 miles from Lawrence, Kan., but just 236 miles from Fargo, N.D.

If it appears I’m picking the Bison to upset the Jayhawks in my bracket, well . . . I’m not. I’m just mad at the Jayhawks for blowing up previous brackets.

If you deem Minnesota over Texas an upset, so be it. The same holds for choosing Portland State over Xavier. That’s about as good as it gets for upsets among my first-round picks. I’ve got a few other interesting choices to reach the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.

In the end, Michigan State, Connecticut, North Carolina and Duke will reach Detroit for the Final Four. Sorry, dude. I never reveal my selection for national champion. It’s, well, bad luck.

You’re officially on your own in trying to win this year’s NCAA Tournament office pool. Good luck.

Oh, and one final Final Four tip. Never pay attention to anyone offering tips.