Oil thirst ’set to outstrip supply’
By Agelio Networks on November 24, 2009 · 8 Comments · 
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Growing world oil use will likely outpace the rate of new supplies in 2010, eroding the huge stockpiles of crude which have mounted around the world since the start of the global economic crisis.
According to a Reuters poll of 10 top oil-tracking analysts and organisations, oil demand is predicted to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day next year to 85.9 million bpd.
At the same time, the rise in production from outside Opec and output of natural gas liquids from Opec members is seen rising by just 800,000 bpd in total.
“The key question for prices is supply,” Barclays Capital analyst Costanzo Jacazio told the news agency.
“2010 is really a bridging year – if the economies continue to perform as well as they have been doing during the early stages of the recovery, then I think by 2011 we’ll be seeing the demand numbers at or above where they were in 2008.”
Non-Opec output is seen averaging 51 million bpd in 2010, up from 50.8 million bpd, while Opec output of natural gas liquids – which are not subject to the producer group’s production quotas – are expected to rise to 5.6 million bpd, up by more than 20% since 2008.
If Opec members can maintain current adherence levels to present output quotas, with group output including Iraq assessed around 28.9 million bpd, crude oil inventories could fall by almost 150 million barrels next year.
Demand for Opec’s crude is seen at 29.3 million bpd.
At the end of September, the International Energy Agency assessed oil stocks in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD) at 60 days of forward cover, 120 million barrels above the five-year average.
For the rest of the story visit, Oil thirst ’set to outstrip supply’ – Upstreamonline
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Excellent time to end our racist war on (some) drugs and re-legalize hemp so we can all be driving diesel engines that BOTH Henry Ford and Rudolph Diesel invented that RUN ON HEMP OIL!
Yeah, we’ve heard the about the “oil crisis” since the 70’s and the chicken little chorus will no doubt get louder but, it never happens. So, I’m not holding my breath..
Why do we continue to beat ourselves up. Just drill. It is not that hard. Drill baby drill.
Does Agelio create the title to the story? If so, why ‘thirst.’ Why not demand. Demands for a growing economy is nothing to be ashamed of. It is the energy to run a great country and the center stone for a world economy. Now that the greenies-sky-is-falling crowd is shown to be a bunch of phonies and liars, why not get with the program and develop some real energy. Drill baby drill. And Angelio, get with the program yourselves.
I think we should drill drill drill. Let’s get every drop we can and use it to any excess needed for our growing economy. I’m not at all worried about children’s lungs, the worry that soil would be impacted further by acid rain rending farming impossible, nor am I worried about life on earth.
So long as we’re aware of how many fertizlied embryoes can dance on the head of a pin and so long as we have enough tax cuts for the rich — because after all they’re the ones that truly need most of the fossil fuels for their yachts and so forth — we have no worries! When most of life on the planet is underwater or dead, we can declare that predatory capitalism works! Yay!
Spare oil production capacity is currently at over 4 million barrels per day just counting OPEC nations.
There is no oil shortage and there is no reason to think that OPEC would fail to tap it’s reserve capacity to meet any possible increase in demand. The dubious assumption of an increase in demand is premised on the hope that an economic recovery is well under way and that growth can continue after stimulus spending is withdrawn.
I am curious as to the author’s purpose in excluding OPEC spare production capacity in his calculations. OPEC only reduced their production in response to recently declining demand, why assume that they would not reverse their target upon economic recovery?
I recommend reading an article which examines the overcapacity of the oil industry and the impending glut of supply:
Some OPEC Nations Charge Ahead Despite Slow Oil Demand
11/19/2009
“Significant challenges face OPEC next year,” Mr. Farren-Price says. “It will struggle to integrate a wave of new OPEC production capacity that vastly exceeds world demand for its crude.” Many of the projects started development well before the recession…
http://alethonews.blogspot.com/2009/11/some-opec-nations-charge-ahead-despite.html
Ben,
You are a very intelligent man.
Because something didn’t happen yesterday, it won’t happen tomorrow. Nice Logic.
Others,
Your ignorance is showing, maybe it’s time to understand the issues before commenting on them.
Pathetic waste of time comments.
I pity you all.
More lies from the Ministry of Propaganda in order to justify an over-priced commodity.