Getting off the fence: Time for Hawkins to go

“How many times did Texas and Oklahoma take to get the right coach? About four. But we’re not about to give up on Dan Hawkins.”

My, how things can change in just over two months. That was what Mike Bohn told The Denver Post in September after the embarrassing road loss on national television to Toledo. It’s one of many adamant statements from him supporting the CU coach through the early portion of the season. Now, on the eve of another ESPN Thursday night matchup against Oklahoma State, the quotes coming from CU’s athletic director have a different tone.

“They’re working hard.”

“These are two huge nationally televised games, and we want to give them every opportunity to be successful.”

“There is no timeline.”

Translation: “I’m thinking about it, but I’m not ready to talk about it.”

Thus the rumors swirl madly around Boulder and will continue at least until Nov. 27, the day Colorado ends its 2009 campaign against rival Nebraska. Forget opponent breakdowns, talk of OSU star Zac Robinson’s status or the recruiting situation this week. All fans want is an answer: Will Hawkins stay or go?

Given a 3-7 record, 12 consecutive road losses and four straight losing seasons, the 2010 “last chance” season we thought Hawkins would get now appears unlikely. Even improbable wins against OSU and Nebraska might not be enough to soothe the discontent that threatens the program. Hawkins, ever confident this week, appeared safe in September because of the financial hurdles CU needs to clear to buy him out. But now, the potential revenue losses as a result of poor attendance have Bohn and his administration rethinking things.

Although the real math isn’t so simple, it’s easy to calculate what CU could be facing.

2007 was one of the best in recent years for CU attendance, averaging over 50,500 fans per game. The home game three weeks ago against Missouri was the worst of 2009, drawing 45,634.

Let’s say the average fan spends $70 at a game. That covers the average ticket price of $50, a food item and a beer . . . err, soda or two. Five thousand lost seats or more times $70 times six home games equals $2.1 million.

That doesn’t factor in nonrenewals of season tickets, club seats (some require a donation of at least $3,000 before ticket price), merchandise and boosters that have vowed to stop financial support if Hawkins is still in charge next year.

Suddenly that buyout, projected to be slightly over $3 million, seems like a fair price to pay.

Yes, it would require some help from the public to find the money. Yes, CU might have to settle with the quality of a potential replacement. Yes, that money should go to renovating a hole called the Balch Fieldhouse (ice troughs in the restrooms, seriously?). And yes, Hawkins is a great human being; bringing his players’ grades up to all-time highs, truly caring about his kids and changing the degenerate culture of the program.

All necessary evils for the sake of the future. Keeping Hawkins just one more year would bolster the perception of CU football that is beginning to take hold nationally: These guys are cheap, ignorant or both. Human issues aside, the performance is just not there. A warm and loving 16-31 (Hawkins’ overall record) is still 16-31.

That said, Bohn appears to have left Hawkins the slimmest of chances to turn it around, should the team play exceptionally well to finish the season. It starts Thursday night in Stillwater, against 8-2 Oklahoma State. OSU has plenty to play for and shouldn’t be overlooking the Buffs. The Cowboys are in position to secure a Cotton Bowl berth, or even jump back into the BCS conversation if teams ahead of them lose. Here are three keys for Colorado to “play for pride,” “play for the seniors” and keep the mob at bay:

ZAC ATTACK

It depends on whom you ask, but the official word on OSU quarterback Robinson is that he’ll be ready to play. Robinson suffered a nasty helmet-to-helmet hit that caused a concussion last week, but coaches have stated he is passing all the medical tests.

Colorado needs to put Robinson in a spot he’s rarely been in before, and do it early. Getting pressure on him is necessary, not from the standpoint of taking the guy out of the game but to test his mental ability with a skull full of jelly. Robinson will have orders to manage the game, but there’s an interception or two to be had from a missed read, a slip-up on the play call or even fear of another hit.

ANYTHING THEY CAN DO, WE CAN DO BETTER

This is what makes the game appear so bleak. Many of the things Iowa State excels at and used to beat Colorado, Oklahoma State does more efficiently.

ISU used the Big 12’s third-best rushing attack to move down the field last week against CU. OSU’s running game is No. 1 in the conference, averaging 201 yards a game. The Buffs give up over 150 rushing yards per contest.

That first key to the game? It’ll be tough for Colorado but won’t be unfamiliar territory. Oklahoma State is again top dog in the conference when it comes to sacks allowed, 0.7 a game. Iowa State is right behind, ranked second at 1.0 per game.

If the coaching staff wants to prove they should stay, then let’s see a game plan to attack these strengths. You know what OSU is going to do on offense, with a great running game and quarterback who isn’t 100 percent. Now find a way to stop it.

GET YOUR HEADS BACK

Turnovers and penalties. One is too many for either. Colorado has struggled, especially lately, with both. CU is dead last in turnovers: 12 fumbles and 15 interceptions. Running back Rodney Stewart, who has been sure-handed most of the year, lost the ball twice last week. Before that game he had two fumbles all year.

Penalties have been a constant problem with Colorado, especially on offense. Two games stand out as prime examples: A 38-14 loss to Texas could have been very different had CU gained more yards on offense than the 140 they let go because of flags, and the Buffs could have been within a touchdown much earlier than they were against ISU if it were not for 30 yards worth of flags on a single play. On that possession, CU had the ball at the ISU 9-yard line.

Here is another area the coaching staff needs to prove their worth in. Turnovers and penalties are, for the most part, mental mistakes. Let’s see a disciplined, focused team. Even if Colorado’s offense continues to struggle, winning both of these battles could result in a win on the scoreboard.

Editor’s note: Comments have been turned off on football stories involving CU to meet the university’s requirement for giving media credentials to Web site reporters and photographers.