The team predicts 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 with eight expected to be hurricanes and four developing into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.

“We expect current moderate El Nino conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year’s hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster on the CSU Hurricane Forecast Team. “The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification.”

The 2010 forecast marks 27 years of hurricane forecasting at Colorado State, led by William Gray. The hurricane forecast team makes its predictions based on 58 years of historical data.

“Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” Gray said. “While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season.”

Precursor factors to this year have a number of similarities to early April conditions that preceded the hurricane years of 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005. All five of these seasons had above-average activity, especially the seasons of 1969, 1998 and 2005. Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2010 season will have slightly less activity than the average of these five earlier years.

The team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2010 will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2009 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 70 percent of the average season.

The hurricane forecast team’s probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil are as follows:

- A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).

- A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).

- A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The team also predicts a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42 percent).

The hurricane team’s forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions – such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures – that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

The team began using a new early April statistical model in 2008.

“We have found that using two late-winter predictors and our early December hindcast, we can obtain early April predictions that show considerable hindcast skill over the period from 1950-2007,” said Klotzbach. “This new forecast model also provided a very accurate prediction over the past few seasons.”

The team will issue forecast updates on June 2 and August 4.

The complete forecast is available at http://www.news.colostate.edu

A parking lot in Littleton on Thursday night. (C. Kennedy photo)

The sky dawned clear over the Denver area Friday morning, but cold and high winds remained from the worst October snowstorm since 1997. As it pushed east, it brought blizzard conditions to the eastern plains. Major highways were shut down, but most reopened by 10 a.m. Some schools were closed again Friday. (Fox 31)

Colorado 93 between Golden and Boulder on the west side of metro Denver was closed because of blowing snow and wind gusts of 60 mph.

The storm pushed out of Colorado and all warnings were dropped Friday morning.

Denver-area traffic conditions

Live traffic cams and alerts

Closings and delays

Denver International Airport

Read the full story at kdvr.com.

A 7 News viewer sent this photo from Arvada.

Minor injuries were reported by people in the western suburbs — mostly from flying glass and debris.

By early Tuesday, Xcel Energy said 27,500 customers in Arvada, Wheat Ridge and Lakewood were still without power. Downed trees fell into yards, onto power lines and onto houses.

The estimated time for power to be restored for most customers was moved from 11 a.m. Tuesday to 11 p.m. Xcel spokesman Tom Henley said some customers may be without power beyond that.

The forecast calls for more storms and showers to develop Tuesday afternoon. Hail, heavy rain, gusty winds and tornadoes all will be possible with these storms, which likely will develop between 3-4 p.m.

Monday’s cold front is also ushering in some cooler air for Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon highs will only be in the upper 70s and low 80s across the metro area and eastern plains. The warm air will hold on to the Western Slope, with highs there in the low to mid- 90s.

The core of the strongest storm Monday night was over Lakewood at 10:35 p.m. when the tornado warning was in effect.

A tornado was reported in Englewood and in Castle Rock.

Street lights were still out in much of Wheat Ridge on Tuesday morning. Motorists were instructed to treat intersections as four-way stops.

Wheat Ridge police said the worst damage was reported on West 44th Avenue, between Holland and Youngfield streets, north to the Arvada city limits.

Winds were measured at 60 mph in the suburbs, kicked up by a cold front that moved through the area about 9:30 p.m.

The storm also dumped large amounts of hail, ranging from pea-size to grape-size.

In Wheat Ridge, one apartment building had 100 windows blown out by the storm.

The storm dropped as much as an inch of rain in less than an hour, causing street flooding in the western suburbs.

Jefferson County libraries in the affected areas were closed because the power was out.

The Colorado Department of Motor Vehicles Office located at 1881 Pierce St., in Lakewood, was closed Tuesday due to the overnight storm. The office hoped to reopen at noon, if power is restored.

Some people will be waking up to destruction. Here is a look at some of the storm reports from Monday evening:

Arvada: major tree damage

Black Forest: 1.5 inches of hail

Denver: 1.2 inches of rain

Fort Collins: 2.5 inches of rain

Lakewood: 70-mph winds

Littleton: 8 inches of hail, small funnel cloud

Click here for the 7 News story.

For Frisco flower girls Jocelyn Paris and Kallie Vaughan, the recent warm weather has meant putting flowers along Main Street onto a strict water schedule for the first time this summer.

“We have for the past two weeks,” Paris said.

It’s a job they haven’t had to do much thanks to weeks of rain that’s helped flowers flourish as the weather’s warmed up.

“Now they are great and seem to be thriving,” Paris said.

It’s not just flowers that are being taken care of in mountain towns. If you head out into the backcountry, you’ll see wildflowers doing pretty good on their own.

High atop Arapahoe Basin, most the snow has melted revealing that summer layer of bright green grass. A-Basin Spokesperson Leigh Hierholzer there’s also a wild variety of wildflowers.

“We have Blue Bells, Indian Paint Brush, March Marigold, Alpine Forget Me Not’s,” Hierholzer said.

All of which are now bursting with color, so much so, the ski area’s first ever dinner and flower tour this weekend sold out.

“[It's] very popular. People love to come up and look at the wildflowers,” Hierholzer said.

Click here for the Fort Collins Coloradoan story.

9NEWS SLIDESHOW: High country colors bursting

Cool, wet weather has given them a break so far, and next week temperatures are forecast to remain in the high 70s. Temperatures will be in the 90s in lower areas.

Fire Chief Mark Miller said local, county, state and federal agencies will take part in the daylong exercise. Vail Resorts also will participate.

The agencies will deal with a fire scenario that would threaten the town’s neighborhoods as well as facilities on Vail Mountain. Crews will be working in the town but try to minimize disruptions.

Feedback will be sought from residents and workers after the event.
 
Miller is urging people to review evacuation procedures posted on the town’s Web site at www.vailgov.com/evac.  



Instead, late spring rains have saved Denver park and maintenance crews more than $500,000 in watering fees.

Of course, crews have had to put in extra hours in mowing to keep up.

Every day with no watering saves $22,000, CBS 4 reported. And with revenues down during the recession, there are plenty of other places to use the savings.

At 2:35 p.m., the only tornado warning in effect included Elbert County and was in effect until 3:15 p.m. At 2:23 p.m.

National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking a tornado 6 miles southeast of Elbert.A tornado watch, in effect until midnight, included the following counties:

Adams, Arapahoe, Cheyenne, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Weld and Yuma.

First Tornado

Earlier, National Weather Service Doppler radar first indicated a tornado 3 miles west of Elbert, just before 2 p.m. By 2:15 p.m., the most intense part of the storm cell was centered over Elbert.

More on this story at TheDenverChannel.com

View looking east from Lafayette Indian Peaks golf course area at about 1:20 p.m. Dean Lauritsen photo

Tornado Warnings was issued for the Denver area shortly after 1 p.m. as the isolated storms gained strength moving off the foothills and over the plains.

Isolated funnels and hail up to marble sized are possible.

Meanwhile, a large funnel cloud -which may have also touched down as a tornado- was spotted moving eastward through the north metro area including parts of Boulder County and near Dacono.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is in effect until this afternoon at 5 p.m. for Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Jefferson, Larimer, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Washington and Weld counties.

Sitting on the front porch of his Windsor home, Brad Hoopes looks around at the destruction left behind after an F3 tornado swept through the area May 22, 2008. Greeley Tribune photo

The town of Milliken, along with the Weld County Commissioners, the Milliken Seniors and the Milliken Fire Department got together Friday at the Milliken Town Hall for a communitywide barbecue and potluck to mark the one-year anniversary of the tornado.

The barbecue started at 11 a.m. with a short program, followed at noon by comments from Milliken Mayor Janie Lichtfuss, Weld County Commissioner David Long and Kevin Kuretich of the state’s Department of Local Affairs. The event concludeed with a balloon release to symbolize “letting go” and “moving forward” sponsored by Spirit Colorado.

While no one would argue that Windsor suffered the brunt of the storm, the eastern edge of Milliken — where the twister skirted before moving on toward its deeper destruction — also was hit. Many homes in Milliken not damaged by winds were hammered by hail that pounded the area.

Also at Friday’s event to share their story were members of the Shable family. Donna Shable’s home just off Colorado 60 on Two Rivers Parkway was especially hard-hit.

Daughter-in-law Debbie Shable said that while insurance has covered much of the damage, some things can’t be replaced. A Quonset hut built by her husband Duane’s late father, Alva Shable, was leveled, destroying a legacy on the farm that can be rebuilt but not wholly emotionally re-created.

Also destroyed was Duane Shable’s 1972 Rally Sport SS Camaro — his first car — which was being restored and was ready to be taken to the paint shop.

What’s harder, both Debbie and Duane Shable said, is the “what ifs” they are left to deal with and try to reconcile. Donna Shable had just returned home before the tornado hit. She sat inside her house, windows closed, thinking only a bad dust storm was blowing through as glass broke and trees toppled around her.

“She just says it wasn’t her time to go,” her daughter-in-law said. “That God spared her for a reason.”

Both also admit, even a year later, that an edginess creeps in sometimes as clouds start to boil on the horizon.

“It does make you watch the skies,” Duane said. “We never want to live through something like that again.”

Read more coverage about the tornado’s one-year anniversary in the Greeley Tribune.